The latest California Poll shows Whitman ahead of Brown by four points, although most papers are calling it a statistical dead heat. The tide of paid media from Whitman – TV spots and radio commercials – has clearly influenced public opinion.
With the mega-money Whitman is pouring into television, I expect her lead to stretch to double digits by the end of the June primaries.
Even with $16 million in the bank, Brown is strapped for money next to the billionaire Whitman. Forced to conserve resources, he will be unable to counter with much paid television in the primary.
Sure, Jerry Brown has more money than his sister or Phil Angelides. But Whitman has unlimited resources.
If Jerry waits until after Labor Day to unleash his attack, Whitman will be out of sight. But if he dilutes his war chest during the summer, he’ll be broke in October.
The lesson is clear: Checkbook Dems need to get Jerry near $100 million or his consultant will be as hunkered down as I was at next year’s IGS election autopsy.