A closer look at the Los Angeles Times/University of Southern California poll showing Meg Whitman with a 3-point lead over Jerry Brown reveals ominous news for the Jerry Brown campaign.
Moonbeam is not doing well with several traditional Dem core groups. The survey found 32% of African-Americans are undecided. Whitman is leading among Millennial voters, 42% to 38%. Whitman is leading among women voters, 44% to 38%. And astonishingly, Brown only has 66% of liberals
Via Calitics blog, here are the demographic breakdowns:
Sure, the numbers should change when Brown begins advertising. That's what happens in a normal campaign. But with Whitman's deep pockets, this isn't a normal campaign: whatever ad program he rolls out will be met or exceeded by the Whitman camp.
And keep in mind this was a survey of registered voters, not likely voters. Since GOP candidates usually do better among likely voters, Whitman's edge is probably bigger.
Robert Cruickshank at Calitics says it: Brown is in trouble.