Monday, April 5, 2010

Jerry Brown in trouble?... poll shows Brown underperforming among key Dem groups

A closer look at the Los Angeles Times/University of Southern California poll showing Meg Whitman with a 3-point lead over Jerry Brown reveals ominous news for the Jerry Brown campaign. 

Moonbeam is not doing well with several traditional Dem core groups.  The survey found 32% of African-Americans are undecided.  Whitman is leading among Millennial voters, 42% to 38%.  Whitman is leading among women voters, 44% to 38%.  And astonishingly, Brown only has 66% of liberals

Via Calitics blog, here are the demographic breakdowns:

Sure, the numbers should change when Brown begins advertising.  That's what happens in a normal campaign.  But with Whitman's deep pockets, this isn't a normal campaign: whatever ad program he rolls out will be met or exceeded by the Whitman camp.

And keep in mind this was a survey of registered voters, not likely voters.  Since GOP candidates usually do better among likely voters, Whitman's edge is probably bigger.

Robert Cruickshank at Calitics says it: Brown is in trouble.

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